FROM GOOD OLE UNCLE VIC

October 2006

   Hello everyone. How are you? Well, it looks like we are lucking out and getting a bit of an Indian Summer. How long it will last, I don't know, but I will take it while we have it.

   The answer to last month's quiz: From where did the term "push the envelope" originate, as in taking something to its limit? The "envelope" is the performance capabilities of an aircraft. To "push the envelope" originally meant to take an aircraft to its physical limits. Kevin Wise and Vernon Rosenberger got it right!

   This week's quiz: What is the only college to have won an NCAA Division I men's football, men's basketball and women's basketball national championship? Email your answers in to Lisa at lisa.hemovich@brickbodies.com.

   I had the pleasure of attending one of the most interesting presentations I have ever heard last month. I heard Dr. George Everly, of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at Johns Hopkins University, speak on the possible effects of another major terrorist attack or a major epidemic on the United States. George's job is to not only predict major terrorist activity and public health dangers to America but to determine the political, economic and social ramifications of such events on the country as well. It was eye-opening to say the least.

   George enlightened all of us to the fact that the government is doing a lot more than we think they are to anticipate and prevent another major terrorist attack. The problem is that if the government shared this information with the American public, it would also be sharing this information with the terrorists. George noted that the government has actually thwarted two planned attacks of a larger scale than 9/11. He also noted that we were originally able to monitor terrorist activity via our satellites because the terrorists were actually using them to communicate with each other. However, media sources reported this practice, thus alerting the terrorists of course.

   For the record, George is neither a Republican nor a Democrat. He is a scientist. In 1992 he was employed by the Kuwaiti government to study potential threats, such as Saddam Hussein of Iraq, and a member of one of the richest families in Saudi Arabia, a relative unknown named Osama Bin Laden. He decided to focus on the person he knew the least about first, Bin Laden. He was in the middle of his research when 9/11 took place. He has not been back to the Middle East since, but he is considered a leading expert on terrorism.

   Bin Laden is dedicated to bringing the Moslem world back to the rule of the Caliphate, or religious leader. He believes the destruction of the Israeli state is essential for this to happen. He believes he must evict the United States from the Middle East to accomplish that objective. He believes he must shake the confidence of the American people for that to happen. He believes if he can shake the confidence of the American people, he can negatively affect our economy. And if he can negatively affect our economy, he can affect our ability to dictate policy in the Middle East.

   You see, terrorism is all about confidence, all about fear. If a people no longer believes its government can protect it or feels certain things are unsafe, like modes of transportation, it will change its way of doing business. The stock market is the best example. When confidence is high, the market zooms. When confidence is low, it tumbles. It is estimated that 9/11 cost the United States 500 billion dollars. That's billion with a "b". When told that fact, Bin Laden responded that it cost him $500,000 to pull off the attack. "Not a bad return on investment is it?" he is reported to have said.

   In addition to the comments on terrorism, George spoke about possible public health disasters along the lines of SARS. He is really a pandemic specialist by profession. At one time his group predicted anywhere from 5 million to 30 million deaths in the United States from SARS. However that prediction has been dramatically scaled back. It seems the victims of SARS are dying so quickly that they do not have time to spread the disease, unlike pandemics of the past like the bubonic plague and smallpox.

   There is good news. George said that it would take such a large quantity of any toxic agent to poison a population's drinking supply that this was not really a danger. Boy, that's comforting to know!

   So, how does this relate to us? What can we do as the common man? Here are a few practical suggestions for each of us to consider:    

1. We are at war. Make no bones about it. And we will be for quite some time.
   
   
2. Another natural or health disaster along the lines of Hurricane Katrina or SARS is not only possible but very likely.
   
   
3. We should have supplies in our homes to last 72 hours. This is the average time it will take for help to reach us if there is such a calamity. We should have water, flash lights, batteries, if possible a gas driven generator and enough cash on hand that we can purchase essentials if they are not accepting credit cards.
   
   
4. We should never let the gas in our cars run so low that we can't drive several miles in heavily congested traffic if we need to.

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY